The Solar Silver Thrust

In early July, Japan set a premium price for solar energy that was three times the rate of conventional power. This meant utility companies would be paid three times more for electricity sourced from solar. It's widely expected that the premium will ignite the use of solar power -- and solar uses a lot of silver.

Silver Demand From PV Panels

As you may know, silver is used in photovoltaic (PV) technology to generate solar power. A typical solar panel uses a fair amount of the metal -- roughly two-thirds of an ounce (20 grams). To put that in perspective, a cellphone contains around 200 to 300 milligrams (a milligram weighs about as much as a grain of sand). A laptop contains 750 milligrams to 1.25 grams.

Photovoltaic technology is relatively young, but its use is growing rapidly each year. Just since 2000, the amount of silver consumed by solar-panel makers has risen an average of 50% per year. Demand grew from one million ounces in 2002 to 60 million ounces in 2011. Last year demand from the PV industry represented almost 11% of total industrial demand for the metal (excluding jewelry). According to statistics from CPM Group, demand grew by 11.2 million ounces, the strongest volume growth of all major sources (jewelry and electronics). And this was before the Japanese announcement was made.

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The largest end-user of solar panels is Germany, though that's changing. Last year, Germany accounted for 27.3% of global installations, but due to subsidy cuts, solar-panel installation capacity dropped from 7.7 gigawatts (GW) to 7.5GW. In the big picture, that decline was offset by increases in China, France, Italy, the UK, Japan, and the U.S.

In their 2012 Yearbook, CPM projected a slight decline in silver demand from solar panels due to a reduction of new installation in Europe and oversupply from excess production in China. But with the initiative from Japan, that estimate is almost certainly low.

Japan Gives New Life To PV Industry

After the Fukushima disaster, Japanese authorities wanted to cut the nation's dependence on nuclear energy. Approximately 30% of Japan's power was generated by nuclear before the catastrophe -- now the focus has shifted to other green energy alternatives, including solar.

The new tariffs might work. The suggested rate of 42 JPY ($0.53) per kilowatt hour (expected to be maintained for 20 years) is more than twice the rate in Germany (€0.17, or $0.246). Bloomberg estimates that this generous increase will create $9.6 billion investments in Japan alone.

Here's what that amount of money would do to the sector: There were approximately 1.3GW of solar capacity installed in 2011, but experts anticipate that number to nearly double to 2.3-2.5GW for 2012, and hit 3.0GW in 2013. According to SolarBuzz, Japan could see 28GW of solar capacity installed by 2020 and 50GW by 2030.

That's a lot of solar panels, and -- even assuming improved efficiency -- it'll take a lot of silver.

Price Factors

During recent years, solar panels have become significantly less expensive and more end-user friendly. However, the fact that each panel contains a lot of silver can make it susceptible to large price fluctuations. If the silver price gets too high, manufacturers might seek alternatives, of course, but they can't easily eliminate use of the metal. And if the product gets too expensive, demand could fall. Companies are already looking for ways to reduce the amount of silver used in PV panels, or to replace it with another element.

At the moment, there are two main solar panel technologies on the market. The traditional one is "thick film," where silver is the main component. The other one is a less-expensive "thin-film" method, which replaces silver with another material, cadmium telluride. The development of thin-film solar panels has picked up due to its lower price, but the technology is less effective.

Thick film is more efficient in gathering energy from the sun, and this type of panel still prevails on the market. CPM reports that it accounted for roughly 91% of total installations last year, and analysts expect thick-film panels to maintain their dominance for at least the next several years. Further, both panel types use silver outside of the cell for reflectivity and other functions, so the odds of silver being eliminated from solar panels entirely are very low at this time.

For investors, this means that at least in the near term, the solar industry will continue to use silver-intensive technology, thus supporting growing industrial demand for the metal.

But that's not all, folks…

New Era For Silver Usage

For a long time, silver industrial demand was dependent almost entirely on one industry: photography. Silver-based camera film dramatically changed the structure of silver demand at the beginning of the 20th century. By that time, silver had primarily been used in silverware, jewelry, and as money. At its peak, photographic demand accounted for about 50% of the market.

But this is the 21st century, and in spite of substantial declines in film use, the modern world has developed many other important uses from silver's unique properties.

Probably the most important shift is that industrial demand for silver no longer comes from a single field, but from numerous applications -- almost too many to count -- virtually none of which show any signs of slowing.

This fact makes the forecast for silver demand more positive and stable. When one industry drops, others may offset the decline.

Here's a smattering of uses, many of which are still in their infancy:

• Solid-state lighting (SSL), which uses semiconductors to produce light with either light-emitting diodes (LED) or organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), rather than the more traditional electrical filaments. SSL is used in traffic lights and some car headlamps.
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• Radio frequency identification (RFID) uses printed silver ink made from silver nitrate. RFID chips have become so ubiquitous, it's hard to find any new product that doesn't have at least one -- even if that's only in the security tag affixed to the package.
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• Supercapacitors and superconductors, autocatalysts and new types of more effective batteries.
• Medical applications, like aseptic coverings for surgery, traumatic wounds, antibacterial bandages and fabrics, dental amalgam, and silver salts that help prevent infections in newborns. It's also used to treat dermatological problems and certain types of cancer.
• Water purification systems, washing machines, air conditioners, and refrigeration. NASA used silver to sterilize recycled water aboard the space shuttle.
• Food packaging and preservation. Manufacturers of commercial ice machines are using silver-embedded hoses, clamps, pipe fittings, and in other places where gunk can build up and harbor bacteria. Meat processors use silver-embedded tables, grinders, tools, and hooks. Silver is used to keep fruit, vegetables, and cut flowers fresh while in transit.
• Public hygiene, such as antimicrobial protection of telephone receivers, door handles, bed rails, toilet seats, counter tops, children's toys, socks, underwear, bed linen, towels, etc.
• Other wide-ranging consumer products used every day: makeup, antibacterial soaps and kitchenware, hand and air sanitizers, and facial creams and masks.

Though the total contribution from these new silver uses is relatively modest, the Silver Institute rather dryly forecasts that "there is a potential for a number of these segments to boost their silver consumption." As you can see in the chart below, its forecast for silver demand for new industrial uses projects that the biggest increases will be in batteries, SSL, and RFID.



The primary uses for silver are growing, too. For example, the automobile industry is increasing consumption, due to both increases in the number of vehicles manufactured and the expanded use of electrical contacts. As the number of improvements in vehicles increase, so does the amount of silver used. For example, silver is used to control seat and mirror adjustments, windshield wipers, and manage navigation systems.
Based on their research, the Silver Institute forecasts that industrial usage will rise to 665.9 million troy ounces by 2015, and account for more than 60% of total fabrication demand.




What It Means For Investors

Since half of silver demand is for industrial purposes, it can act like an industrial metal in addition to its precious metal component. This means it's susceptible to more forces than gold, making it more volatile, as well as more difficult to predict its future price.

Conclusions:

1. The solar industry has great potential to become one of the more important sources of silver demand. This will lend strong support to prices. This industry had zero impact on silver 10 years ago; it now represents 10% of total industrial demand.And it's not just Japan. According to a news report, 102 countries are now installing solar panels -- from just 18 two years ago. Heavy and/or growing usage is reported in Germany, Italy, Japan, France, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, the U.S., Australia, and Asia, including China and India.
2. It appears that the development of the solar industry didn't occur as a result of natural forces, since to a large degree, it was initiated by government subsidies that supported the industry (and indirectly, the silver price). You may like or not like these market interventions, but as investors, it's important to recognize these trends, regardless of whether we agree with them. It's particularly important to keep an eye on these subsidies, as they could vanish if cash-strapped governments change their priorities. That won't happen overnight, however, so we should have ample warning.
3. Due to its unique properties, the number of applications for silver continues to grow. Researchers at the Silver Institute are upbeat about the future for silver industrial demand. That's no surprise, but it doesn't make them wrong -- the implication here is that only the worst type of economy would have a negative impact on demand.
4. If demand grows fast enough, it could impact not only the price, but the availability of the metal, in spite of rising mine production. If that happens, bullion purchase premiums will rise as supply becomes tighter.

The bottom line on the above is that the growing number of industrial applications for silver represents a long-term shift in this market. Increasingly diverse usage is not only here to stay, but will continue to grow, supporting the price and impacting the balance of supply and demand.

For investors, the thing to keep in mind is that while long-term prospects for silver prices are extremely bullish, to the degree prices are driven by this increased industrial demand, they are vulnerable to economic correction/contraction in the short term.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Solar Incentives Slashed Under New Rules

The Baillieu government has cut incentives for rooftop solar panels for next year as part of a shake-up of how small-scale renewable energy is priced in the state.

The changes reduce the Victorian feed-in-tariff for solar to eight cents for each kilowatt hour fed into the grid in 2013 - down from the existing rate of 25 cents - and fulfils recommendations by the state's competition advisory body.

The changes will not affect customers with existing contracts and tariff rates. Households that have paperwork lodged by September 30 with electricity suppliers can also still get access to the existing 25-cent tariff.

A review released today by the Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission recommends a six-to-eight cents a kilowatt hour tariff be put in place, with the government accepting the top end of that range for 2013.

The tariff will then be adjusted by the government each year in 2014, 2015 and 2016 based on the wholesale electricity price, before moving to a fully floating market price in 2017.

The tariff scheme will also be opened to other forms of renewable energy systems generating 100 kilowatts or less.

The changes fall short of calls by the renewable energy industry that a fair rate of tariff for solar was 12 to 16 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Announcing the changes this afternoon, Energy Minister Michael O'Brien said the falling costs of solar panel systems and rising power prices meant households were taking up solar without the need for over-generous subsidies from other power users.

He said an older 60-cents per kilowatt-hour tariff — closed by the Baillieu government last year — would cost Victorian households $41 million a year to 2024 through electricity bills in subsidies to homes with solar panels.

"People in public housing, tenants who cannot access solar, are paying higher electricity bills in order to subsidise the rooftop solar for other people. Now that wasn't sustainable at those rates, they were over generous," Mr O'Brien said.

Labor's energy spokeswoman, Lily D'Ambrosio, criticised the decision, saying thousands of Victorian families were installing solar panels to reduce their power bills amid increasing cost-of-living pressures.

''The Baillieu government has again shown it just doesn’t care about supporting families who want to reduce their energy costs while also doing their bit for the environment,'' she said.

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Fotowatio Plans to Build Australia’s Largest Solar-Power Project

Fotowatio Renewable Ventures, the solar-power plant developer backed by U.S. energy investor Denham Capital Management LP, won the right to build a 20-megawatt project near Australia’s capital.

Fotowatio will participate in the Australian Capital Territory’s feed-in tariff program, which rewards generators of solar power by paying above-market prices for the electricity, Simon Corbell, ACT minister for the environment and sustainable development, said today in a statement.

The Royalla solar farm, to be built about 25 kilometers (16 miles) south of Canberra, will become the largest in Australia by 2014, according to the statement. The venture will help in an effort to lower carbon emissions and shift away from fossil fuels, the ACT government said.

Fotowatio, which is based in the Netherlands, sought a new project in Australia after losing a competition earlier this year for federal government funds to build a large-scale solar plant in New South Wales state. Denham Capital in March reached an agreement with Fotowatio to invest $190 million in solar projects in markets including Australia.

Clean Energy With a Pinch of salt

A sodium-ion battery being developed in Australia is set to increase solar energy use and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, according to researchers.

Although bulkier than commonly used lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries will be cheaper, less toxic, and more environmentally friendly, said Manickam Minakshi, a chemistry and mineral scientist at Murdoch University, in Perth Australia.

“Our water-based sodium-ion battery has shown excellent potential for affordable, low-temperature storage,” he said.

Better batteries

Other batteries used for renewable energy storage – such as molten salt or molten sulphur – only work at high temperatures, making them expensive and impractical. Also, like lead-acid batteries, they are very corrosive and environmental pollutants, which aren't problems with sodium-ion batteries, said Minakshi.

The Murdoch team is now moving towards large-scale commercialisation, and the future could see these batteries connected to solar panels in every home. “This is a very exciting time,” said Minakshi.
The new sodium-ion battery has particular potential when coupled with the green power of solar energy. Widespread use of power from solar panels is limited because there are periods known as ‘non-generation’ times, when power cannot be produced. These include, for example, overcast weather or night-times.

Power in the dark

“Using solar energy panels to get power will only make sense when you can store the power when the Sun’s not shining,” said Stephen Thurgate, vice-president of program development partnerships at Sydney’s Macquarie University.

Murdoch’s new sodium-ion batteries could have applications in small networks with their own battery systems or ‘smart grids’ that use information and communication technology to reduce dependence on centralised power stations, said Thurgate.

While commonly used rechargeable lithium batteries have a higher voltage, making them more suitable for transport and vehicular power sources, they come with a lot of issues, said Minakshi.

Sodium: cheap and abundant

Lithium, for example, is more expensive and far less abundant than sodium in the Earth’s crust.
Another advantage of sodium-ion batteries is that they have a higher density, meaning they are able to store more energy for their weight. Combined with their low costs, they could open up affordable green energy to the developing world.

Lithium and sodium share similar chemical properties, but the sodium ion is 2.5 times the size of lithium, and a big challenge for the Murdoch researchers was finding a ‘host material’ for these large ions.

“Ions travel out of the cathode and into the anode to form a current,” said Minakshi. “As an imperfect analogy, you can think of them as mesh filters that ions pass through. We had to find materials with larger gaps in their mesh.”

Paving a path for alternative energy technology

Murdoch’s new development doesn’t spell the death of the lithium battery, which is still ideal for transportation because of its lighter weight, said Danielle Meyrick, deputy dean of the School of Chemical and Mathematical Sciences. “Sodium is slightly heavier and is much more suitable for stationary energy storage applications [such as] industry,” she said.

The sodium-ion technology could also enable the use of renewable energy in households, moving away from traditional energy generation sources.

“This kind of battery facilitates security of supply and continuity of electricity supply to households," said Meyrick. “It facilitates storage in times when there’s no sunlight, when there’s no wind, [and] when there’s no snow.”

Although there is more research to be done on finding the optimum scale of the battery and cell size, Thurgate said the findings were promising.

“The fact that [sodium-ion batteries are] based on readily available materials, that it’s an aqueous solvent [water-based] – so there’s no fear of the thing being flammable – [and] the fact the energy density is very high... are all great,” she said.

Strong on Solar: Australia Eyes CSP Leadership

A move into concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) could not only drive Australia's de-carbonization but establish a global technology lead, says a new analysis from the Australia Solar Institute.

Solar Dawn, as its name suggests, is a CSP project with aspirations as a catalyst. Based near Chinchilla — "Australia's melon capital" — in rural Queensland, at 250 MW, if completed its impact would be felt worldwide.

"Hugely significant for the industry" is how Dr. Keith Lovegrove of IT Power Australia describes the A$1.2 billion (US$1.2 billion) initiative. The scheme is backed by Australia's federal Solar Flagships Programme and the consortium behind Solar Dawn has dubbed it "the largest solar project in the Southern Hemisphere".

But, while Solar Dawn could bring up the sun for Australian CSP with a jolt, its chances of seeing daylight are fading. On 1 July 2012, the scheme missed an extended deadline for funding. The state of Queensland promptly withdrew its support, leaving a A$75 million (US$79 million) hole. "None of us knows what's happening," says Lovegrove.

But he would deny that Australian CSP's prospects are also dimming. Spectacular daybreak may look off the cards, but several glimmers of light are showing.

For a start, less ambitious CSP projects remain on track. Just down the road from the proposed site for Solar Dawn, the 44 MW Kogan Creek Solar Boost is now under construction. On completion, the hybrid plant will feed additional solar generated steam to the existing 750 MW coal-fired Kogan Creek Power Station.

In strategic terms, CSP's fit for Australia's meteorology, economy and climate objectives is also arguably as snug as a lifeguard's Speedos. In the recent report Realising the Potential of Solar Power in Australia, a team led by Lovegrove floats the idea of CSP providing up to 15 GW in "the near-to-mid-term".

Without a radical overhaul of its grid, Australia could have 2 GW in CSP by 2020 and 10 GW by 2030, according to the report's roadmap. In the longer term, the technology could meet half of the country's energy needs by 2050.

Letting the sunshine in

Blistering sunshine obviously figures in Australia's appeal for CSP. As a technology, concentrating solar thermal requires "excellent direct normal insolation from the sun, mostly met in the 15° to 35° latitude bands," in the words of the International Energy Agency.

But top solar locations are, almost by definition, a poor match with existing distribution and transmission infrastructure. Australian networks have developed to transmit electricity from large central generators near coal, gas or hydro resources. Electricity from CSP would need to flow over long distances in different directions.

To see precisely how well CSP could map onto solar resources and existing systems, Lovegrove's team examined the potential of various types of CSP, both off-grid and grid connected. The study concluded that 15 GW of CSP capacity could be achieved with "only modest grid extensions". Initial installations could cover hybrid systems at existing fossil-fuel plants and smaller off-grid plants for mines and towns. Further down the line, "nation-building" grid extensions could unlock more substantial solar resources.

Of this 15 GW potential, 8 GW would be high-capacity standalone plants with enough thermal storage to justify fairly modest grid extensions. Another 2 GW would be hybrid plants delivering steam to established coal-fired plants, while 3-4 GW would be standalone plants with capacities of 50-150 MW linked to existing grids. Medium-scale grid-connected and off-grid plants are also seen as likely to take off, although totalling less 1 GW of capacity.

Cleaning the energy mix

In any case, the hurdles to adding CSP capacity to Australia's grids could be overshadowed by the risks of sticking with fossil fuel. By coincidence, Solar Dawn's recent thunderclap broke amid a political storm over an attempted overhaul of the energy mix.

Also on 1 July, 2012, Prime Minister Julia Gillard's flagship Carbon Price came into force. From now on, the country's 294 top polluters must pay A$23 (US$24) for each tonne of carbon emitted, although the price is expected to ease from 2015. A glance at Australia's current energy mix reveals why the law's proposers were willing to brave fierce public opposition. Australia's 50 GW of installed capacity is among the world's dirtiest, with coal providing three quarters of electricity. In per-capita carbon emissions, Australia is the developed world's number one.

The new law - labelled the Carbon Tax by its many opponents - is aimed at cutting carbon emissions from 2000 levels by 5 per cent by 2020 and by 80 per cent by 2050. While renewables take on a larger slice of energy mix, a closure program for heavily polluting coal fired plants should help speed Australia down the league of top polluters.

In any cleaner generation future, solar power offers two advantages over other renewables. An analysis of electricity prices within a recent report for ASI by ROAM Consulting, Solar Generation Australian Market Monitoring, found that solar should prosper because its hours of peak generation coincide with peak demand. But CSP holds another ace in its ability to meet peak and baseload demand through storage.

Storing up baseload capacity

For now, in fact, concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) technology is making similar headway to CSP in Australia. Construction is underway on Solar Systems' 2 MW Mildura Solar pilot plant, where a 100 MW facility will be built if the demonstration project prospers. Yet basic economics could still favour solar thermal technology. "CSP without storage is twice as expensive as large-scale PV," says Lovegrove. "Why bother? The real reason is storage."

CSP technologies can feature thermal storage units. As heat can be stored far more efficiently than electricity, these plants open up a rare opportunity for renewables to provide baseload and peaking power. The value of CSP's capacity to meet demand could also rise over time. A future energy mix with more intermittent renewables such as wind would put a high premium on energy storage.

What's more, the ability to effectively time shift solar generation would also protect CSP revenues once more solar power comes on line, with additional PV capacity creating a bulge in daytime generation that would be expected to curb prices, cutting its premium. "Anything fixed in time of dispatch can cause a fall in pricing," says Lovegrove. "Storage means you can adapt to the new peak."

The "strategic" case for CSP

In addition, the ASI sees a strategic case for investing in CSP. "It suits Australia because we're sunny and have experience in power stations," says Lovegrove.

Solar Dawn would provide a showcase for home-grown compact linear Fresnel collector (CLFC) technology already in place at the coal-fired Liddell Power station and being installed at the Kogan Solar Boost. Areva Solar, which is driving both the Solar Dawn and Solar Boost projects, was formed by the purchase of Ausra Solar, a firm that originated in Sydney in 2002.

A lull in global CSP activity could also let Australia make its mark. "Nothing that Australia can do will affect the photovoltaic industry - which is now taken up by China - but one of our conclusions is that CSP offers an opportunity in a technology area that suits Australia," says Lovegrove.

In fact, rather than a crowded field, Australian CSP could emerge into a void. After driving the industry for many years, Spain's commitment to CSP could waver amid its on-going financial crisis. In the US, federal backing for CSP now looks uncertain. Increasingly, the industry is looking to India, where the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission aims for 20 GW of CSP and PV by 2022, as well as Middle East and North African states.

The prospects for Australian CSP technology in new markets such as India are buoyed by Areva's recent contract to set up two 125 MW CSP plants in Rajasthan. Areva will provide construction management services for the project, scheduled for commercial operation by May 2013.

CSP still too pricey

But one drawback outweighs the host of benefits that CSP could bring. ASI's report pegs the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for utility-scale solar thermal at about A$250 (US$261)/MWh. Meanwhile, the maximum revenue in main grid-connected markets currently totals about A$120 (US$125)/MWh, including renewable certificates.

In fairness, the gap between CSP and fossil fuel is not as unbridgeable as these figures suggest. A complex study of potential revenue suggests CSP's ability to meet baseload and peak demand through being dispatchable doubles the value of its production. This "time value" means CST would have earned A$87 (US$91)/MWh over 2005-2010 while wholesale prices averaged only A$42 (US$44)/MWh.
But ASI Executive Director Mark Twidell identifies the gap between revenues on the market and the cost of technology as it moves from demonstration to commercialisation as "the critical issue facing CSP technologies".

"There is a range of market and policy drivers that will impact on the widespread, large-scale deployment of CSP but ultimately it is about bringing down cost and closing the cost-revenue gap, which is the responsibility of industry, government and the research sector," he says. An added challenge for CSP is the impact of Australia's commodity boom, which has pushed up the price of construction in the areas where new plants would go up.

Getting to the right price

The study projects that CSP will be competitive with Australia's grid at some point between 2018 and 2030. "There is a 90 per cent probability it will fall within that range," says Lovegrove. Rising demand and falling CSP capital costs would both drive this transformation. While real energy values are forecast to rise by between 1 per cent and 3 per cent per year, capital costs are predicted to drop by between 20 per cent and 50 per cent by 2020.

"CSP is right at the top of the cost curve," says Lovegrove. His optimism rests on the likely trajectory of global deployment as well as a SunShot Vision Study in the U.S., which found "heaps of opportunity to reduce the costs of various elements". In his view, the industry can reasonably expect costs to fall in line with those in the wind industry, giving a progress ratio (PR) of 0.8 or 0.9 with each doubling of installed capacity.

That said, the ASI hardly expects CSP to take off in Australia entirely on its own merits. The purpose of Realising the Potential of Solar Power in Australia is rather to alert authorities to the wider benefits of CSP so these can be rewarded.

A call for new policies

For now, wholesale electricity markets largely determine CSP plants' revenues, with renewable energy certificates adding about A$30-40 (US$31-41)/MWh. But Lovegrove argues plants' income should also reflect their specific advantages for networks.

As CSP plants are likely to be in rural or relatively remote locations, they could reduce high line losses. Installations could also earn additional revenues through reducing network costs by providing reliable generation at the end of near-capacity lines. Capacity value - the extent to which CSP can cut investment in other dispatchable systems - provides a further case for enhanced revenues. In addition, rising capacity of fluctuating renewables such as wind and solar PV could raise the value of ancillary services for balancing the grid, which CSP with storage is equipped to provide.
The ASI report advocates such technology-neutral incentives as one element in a four-pronged approach. Second, Lovegrove and his team suggest the sector aim to better communicate its value proposition to key organizations, retailers and financiers. They also call for "CSP-solar precincts" in areas of high solar resource, where connections for CSP would be provided to cut development costs. Finally, the report recommends a push in R&D to reduce costs and build confidence. Key areas where Australia could focus include deployments of less than 50 MW, fossil-fuelled hybridisation and advanced cooling technologies suited to water supply constraints.

Getting the message across

But will Australia's authorities heed the ASI's call? That may hinge on the next federal election, due by the end of 2013. The opposition led by the Liberal Party's Tony Abbott looks set to romp home. Which could be ominous for all renewables. Abbott has made a "pledge in blood" to repeal the Carbon Price. But Mark Twidell prefers to stress elements of consensus. "The independent Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), which has bipartisan support and funding legislated through to 2020, will make investments to develop renewable energy technologies and to help lower their costs, including meritorious CSP projects."

In his view, there is even hope for Solar Dawn. "The Australian government remains committed to the deployment of large-scale solar," he says.

Lovegrove seems more willing to acknowledges headwinds. "It's such an uncertain environment. If you ask most the key stakeholders, what they'd really like is some certainty, so that they can start planning. It's incredibly tricky to see what will happen." While "very, very optimistic" about the sector's global outlook, he is less sanguine about its future in his homeland.

"Whether Australia manages to shoot itself in the foot or not remains to be seen,' he says. On the upside, he sees potential for Australia to 'relatively easily" take a leadership role to become "a major, major player". But he admits that CSP's advocates have a complex message to get across."Everybody loves renewables in a motherhood sort of way, but very few people have cottoned onto the importance of matching demand throughout the day," he says.

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Government to Scrap Carbon Floor Price

After weeks of secretive talks between the Gillard government and the Greens, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has announced Labor will scrap the planned $15 floor price on carbon permits in a major overhaul of the carbon pricing scheme.

Following intense lobbying from business and threats by the independent MP Rob Oakeshott to block the floor price, the government will ditch the mechanism and instead restrict the purchase of cheap overseas permits from developing countries.

A limit on the amount of United Nations-backed permits that Australian companies can buy will effectively prop up the price at home.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet plans to scrap the $15 carbon floor price. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Mr Combet also announced plans to link Australia's scheme to Europe's emissions trading scheme from 2015, which is likely to have the effect of matching the two prices.

 

The link with Europe means that Australian companies can start buying European permits - which are now trading at $9.80 - right away to meet their future liabilities.

This could make the carbon price cheaper overall for Australian businesses, though the European price is likely to rise by the end of the decade as the European Union moves to make restrictions of its own.

Australian companies will only be able to meet 12.5 per cent of their liability under the Australian carbon scheme with the UN-backed permits.

And from 2018 - or possibly sooner - Australian companies will be able to sell credits in Europe. This could be a boon for farmers, who can generate credits through changes to their land practices, such as tree planting, though Mr Combet said that aspect was still to be negotiated.

The carbon price, which came in on July 1, will initially be fixed at $23 and will rise slightly over the next two years, when it becomes a floating-price emissions trading scheme.

Europe has the largest emissions trading scheme in the world. A linkage means that carbon permits can be traded back and forth between Australia and Europe. The idea is that the free market then finds the cheapest possible way to reduce carbon. From an environmental viewpoint, it does not matter where the carbon cuts are made.

The floor price was intended to create certainty for potential investors in clean energy. But businesses complained it would be an administrative headache.

Without a restriction of the UN-backed international permits, the Australian price could crash to as low as $3 or $4. The Greens have been concerned that a very low carbon price would not be enough to drive investment in cleaner energy such as wind, solar and wave power.

Today's announcement is also likely to have an effect on negotiations between Energy Minister Martin Ferguson and electricity generators who could be paid billions of dollars to phase out their dirtiest power plants.

The likely price of carbon over the next decade is one factor in deciding the value of these power plants. They may argue that scrapping the floor price raises the value of their assets.
The Greens have already backed the changes.

Independent MP Rob Oakeshott said this afternoon he would also support the legislation.
He said the announcement would protect Australia's emissions trading scheme from some ''very difficult decisions into the future''.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the changes showed the government was all at sea on the carbon tax.

''You can't fix it. You've just got to scrap it,'' Mr Abbott told reporters in Rockhampton.

''We haven't had the carbon tax for two months yet and they've admitted there is a fundamental flaw at the heart of the carbon tax.''

Mr Abbott said there would be a ''huge hole'' in the budget as a result of the decision.

''If you can't take the price for granted, you can't take the revenue for granted, and if you can't take the revenue for granted, you can't rely on the compensation,'' he said.

However Mr Combet said the government would not reduce household assistance payments and tax cuts set up to compensate for the price impacts of the carbon tax.

Asked if he was contemplating any further changes Mr Combet said: ‘‘no’’.

''We will not be cutting any household assistance,'' he said.

''We committed to it and you might recall that there are further tax cuts that have been legislated from 2015 as well.''

Australians Led The World in Home Solar Installs in 2011

Australian households installed more residential rooftop solar power systems last year than any other nation.

Approximately 392,500 new home solar systems were activated in 2011 according to data from the Clean Energy Regulator and the International Energy Agency.

A fact sheet released by REC Agents Association (RAA) based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator states Australians had installed nearly 1.5 million solar hot water and solar panel systems to the end of June.

As at 30 June, 2012, renewable energy certificates had been created for 753,844 solar panel systems; representing 1,671,489 kW capacity. A further 743,842 heat pump and solar hot water systems had been installed.

Close to 18 per cent of all Australian families now has one or the other or both installed – 9 per cent of households have solar electricity generation systems.

“Recognition must go to the Howard Government for having the vision to establish a world leading Renewable Energy Target, to the Rudd Government for increasing that target four-fold and to the Gillard Government for delivering on the promise of the Renewable Energy Target,” says Ric Brazzale, President of RAA.

“Whilst four million Australians now have solar on their roofs, many more Australians are keen to get on board. The Renewable Energy Target must be maintained, expanded and extended over time to help deliver solar to all Australians.”

Some corners of industry have called for the scrapping of the Renewable Energy Target due to the introduction of a carbon price. However, last month, Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Greg Combet stated this would “fail to deliver the transformation needed in our energy sector and only increase the cost of that transformation in later years.”

REC Agents Association represents businesses creating and trading inRenewable Energy Certificates (RECs); the mechanism behind Australia’s Renewable Energy Target and the basis of the Solar Credits Scheme. Often referred to as a solar rebate, Solar Credits is an initiative that subsidises solar panel systems.